Source Comparison
Compare prediction market and forecasting sources side by side: coverage, volume, liquidity, participation, and methodology.
Polymarket
polymarket.comDecentralized prediction market on Polygon. No KYC required. Settles in USDC via UMA oracle.
AMMSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
133,442
1,107 open events
Total Volume
$14.9B
$4.2B 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$19.5B
4.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 70,600
- Verified settlement times: 68,055
- Calibration-ready histories: 3,747
Top Categories
SportsPoliticsWeatherTechGeopolitics
Limitless
limitless.exchangeOn-chain prediction market built on Base. Markets are fully collateralized in USDC and settled on-chain. No KYC required — connect a wallet to trade.
AMM / CLOBSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability
Total Events
49,438
1,424 open events
Total Volume
$1.9B
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$51.1B
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
SportsTechEsportsCommoditiesAI
Manifold Markets
manifold.marketsPlay-money prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on any topic. Uses Mana (M$), a free virtual currency. High market breadth makes it a strong signal for crowd forecasting on niche topics.
Settles in Mana (M$)No KYC
Total Events
18,790
99 open events
Total Volume
$185.8M
$5.3M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$16M
4.8 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
PoliticsSportsAIGeopoliticsCommodities
Kalshi
kalshi.comCFTC-regulated prediction exchange. KYC required. US only. Settles in USD via central limit order book.
CLOBSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
64,446
6,788 open events
Total Volume
$38.2M
$16.4M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$23.3M
7.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 54,471
- Verified settlement times: 54,537
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,331
Top Categories
SportsPoliticsTechEsportsWeather
PredictIt
www.predictit.orgUS-focused prediction market centered on politics and public events. Tradeable contracts are available, but public market-depth data is limited compared with larger exchange-style venues.
Order bookSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
386
283 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
PoliticsGeopoliticsFedRegulation
Smarkets
smarkets.comSmarkets
Order bookKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
37
17 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
7.1 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution dataNo verified resolution data yet.
Top Categories
PoliticsCommodities
Metaculus
www.metaculus.comCommunity forecasting platform focused on probabilistic estimates and forecaster track records.
Total Events
4
2 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
GeopoliticsPolitics
| Polymarket | Limitless | Manifold Markets | Kalshi | PredictIt | Smarkets | Metaculus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Events | 133,442 | 49,438 | 18,790 | 64,446 | 386 | 37 | 4 |
| Open Events | 1,107 | 1,424 | 99 | 6,788 | 283 | 17 | 2 |
| Closed Events | 132,335 | 48,014 | 18,691 | 57,658 | 103 | 20 | 2 |
| Total Volume | $14,901,580,197 | $1,858,981,722 | $185,832,169 | $38,206,118 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 24h Volume | $4,208,778,460 | $0 | $5,339,952 | $16,368,922 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liquidity | $19,465,487,212 | $51,079,983,984 | $16,049,153 | $23,284,530 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Avg Outcomes | 4.4 | 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 4 | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| Liquidity model | AMM | AMM / CLOB | — | CLOB | Order book | Order book | — |
| Settlement currency | USDC | USDC | Mana (M$) | USD | USD | — | — |
| KYC / Identity | Not required | Not required | Not required | Required | Required | Required | — |
| Taker fee | 2% | — | — | 2% | — | — | — |
| Maker fee | No fee | — | — | No fee | — | — | — |
| Geographic access | Check availability | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability | Check availability | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source |
Platform availability by country
Not all platforms are available in every country. See which platforms you can access based on where you are.