Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
7mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 71 • Medium qualityHigh ambiguity
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
S&P 500 41%
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium qualityBid / Ask
40.0% / 41.0%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Last updated: May 29, 10:21 PM
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$8.6K
Liquidity
$78.4K
Spread
2.5%
Tight spread7d Change
+9.0%
Medium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Dec 22, 2025, 5:42 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset.
- The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles).
- The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch.
- The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.
- The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
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Topics
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