Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
7mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 71 • Medium qualityNear resolution
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Yes 7%
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium qualityBid / Ask
7.1% / 7.2%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Last updated: May 29, 11:21 PM
Resolves
Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM
24h Volume
$23.5K
Liquidity
$71.6K
Spread
1.4%
Tight spread7d Change
-1.2%
Medium liquidityNear resolution
Started Jan 9, 2026, 6:05 PMEnds Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Kalshi
PolymarketLast updated: 4 minutes ago
No
0pt93%
Yes
0pt7%
Vol
$3.1M
24h Vol
$23.5K
Liq
$71.6K
Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiLast updated: 3 minutes ago
No
▲ +1pt94%
Yes
▼ 1pt6%
Vol
$1.4K
24h Vol
$0.2
Liq
$471.6
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
- If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
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