Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
1.0% (24h)7mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeMarket quality 28 • Low qualityThin market
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Yes 6%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low qualityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 12:22 AM
Resolves
Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM
24h Volume
$0.2
Liquidity
$471.6
Spread
20.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-
Low liquidityThin marketNear resolution
Started Oct 18, 2025, 2:00 PMEnds Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Polymarket
KalshiLast updated: 3 minutes ago
No
0pt94%
Yes
0pt6%
Vol
$1.4K
24h Vol
$0.2
Liq
$471.6
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
PolymarketLast updated: 3 minutes ago
No
▼ 1pt93%
Yes
▲ +1pt7%
Vol
$3.1M
24h Vol
$23.8K
Liq
$70.7K
Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.
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