How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0.1% (24h)7mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Market quality 64 • Medium qualityHigh ambiguity

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

0 (0 67%

Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality

Bid / Ask

0.4% / 0.7%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 9:41 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$100.3K

Liquidity

$1.6M

Spread

75.0%

Wide spread

7d Change

+0.3%

High liquidityHigh ambiguity

Started Sep 29, 2025, 10:29 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

0 (0

+0.2%67%

1 (25

-19%

2 (50

-8%

3 (75

-3%

4 (100

-0.1%1%

5 (125

-1%

9 (225

+0.1%1%

6 (150

-0%

7 (175

-0%

8 (200

-0%

10 (250

-0%

11 (275

-0%

12+ (300+

-0%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026.
This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

Open on Polymarket

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Topics

Fed

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Back to Prediction Markets

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0.1% (24h)7mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Market quality 64 • Medium qualityHigh ambiguity

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

0 (0 67%

Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality

Bid / Ask

0.4% / 0.7%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 9:41 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$100.3K

Liquidity

$1.6M

Spread

75.0%

Wide spread

7d Change

+0.3%

High liquidityHigh ambiguity

Started Sep 29, 2025, 10:29 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

0 (0

+0.2%67%

1 (25

-19%

2 (50

-8%

3 (75

-3%

4 (100

-0.1%1%

5 (125

-1%

9 (225

+0.1%1%

6 (150

-0%

7 (175

-0%

8 (200

-0%

10 (250

-0%

11 (275

-0%

12+ (300+

-0%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026.
This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

Open on Polymarket