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Bees-x Limited
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13308136
Incorporated In
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Monmouth House, High Street, Watford, England, WD17 1LN

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Iran leader end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

0.3% (24h)7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 70 • Medium qualityHigh ambiguity26pt disagreement

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Mojtaba Khamenei 70%

Market quality

70 / 100

Medium quality
Bid / Ask

3.9% / 4.6%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 6:11 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$751K

Liquidity

$1.8M

Spread

17.9%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.3%

High liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Mar 1, 2026, 12:28 AMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Mojtaba Khamenei
Mojtaba Khamenei
+0.1%70%
Reza Pahlavi
Reza Pahlavi
-7%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
+0.3%4%
No Head of State
No Head of State
-0.3%3%
Abbas Araghchi
Abbas Araghchi
-0.1%3%
Hassan Khomeini
Hassan Khomeini
+1.0%2%
Sadegh Larijani
Sadegh Larijani
+0.4%1%
Maryam Rajavi
Maryam Rajavi
+0.1%1%
Massoud Rajavi
Massoud Rajavi
-0.1%1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
Masoud Pezeshkian
-1%
Hassan Rouhani
Hassan Rouhani
-2.8%1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
+0.3%1%
Alireza Arafi
Alireza Arafi
-0.3%1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
+0.3%1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
-0%
Hassan Shariatmadari
Hassan Shariatmadari
-0.1%0%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
-0%
Reza Pirzadeh
Reza Pirzadeh
-0%
Navid Shomali
Navid Shomali
-0.1%0%
Mustafa Hijri
Mustafa Hijri
-0%
Ali Motahari
Ali Motahari
-0%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
-0.1%0%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
-0%
Sadegh Mahsouli
Sadegh Mahsouli
-0%
Saeed Jalili
Saeed Jalili
-0%
Mohammad Khatami
Mohammad Khatami
-0%
Other
Other
0.0%0%
Mohammad Pakpour
Mohammad Pakpour
-0%
Ali Larijani
Ali Larijani
-0%
Ahmad Vahidi
Ahmad Vahidi
+0.1%0%
Mohsen Araki
Mohsen Araki
-0%
Nasir Hosseini
Nasir Hosseini
-0%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
Ali Asghar Hejazi
-0%
o
o
0.0%0%
p
p
0.0%0%
q
q
0.0%0%
r
r
0.0%0%
s
s
0.0%0%
t
t
0.0%0%
u
u
0.0%0%
v
v
0.0%0%
w
w
0.0%0%
x
x
0.0%0%
y
y
0.0%0%
z
z
0.0%0%
aa
aa
0.0%0%
ab
ab
0.0%0%
ac
ac
0.0%0%
ad
ad
0.0%0%
ae
ae
0.0%0%
af
af
0.0%0%
ag
ag
0.0%0%
ah
ah
0.0%0%
ai
ai
0.0%0%
aj
aj
0.0%0%
ak
ak
0.0%0%
al
al
0.0%0%
am
am
0.0%0%
an
an
0.0%0%
ao
ao
0.0%0%
ap
ap
0.0%0%
aq
aq
0.0%0%
ar
ar
0.0%0%
as
as
0.0%0%
at
at
0.0%0%
au
au
0.0%0%
av
av
0.0%0%
aw
aw
0.0%0%
ax
ax
0.0%0%
ay
ay
0.0%0%
az
az
0.0%0%
ba
ba
0.0%0%
bb
bb
0.0%0%
bc
bc
0.0%0%
bd
bd
0.0%0%
be
be
0.0%0%
bf
bf
0.0%0%
bg
bg
0.0%0%
bh
bh
0.0%0%
bi
bi
0.0%0%
bj
bj
0.0%0%
bk
bk
0.0%0%
bl
bl
0.0%0%
bm
bm
0.0%0%
bn
bn
0.0%0%
bo
bo
0.0%0%
bp
bp
0.0%0%
bq
bq
0.0%0%
br
br
0.0%0%
bs
bs
0.0%0%
bt
bt
0.0%0%
bu
bu
0.0%0%
bv
bv
0.0%0%
bw
bw
0.0%0%
bx
bx
0.0%0%
by
by
0.0%0%
bz
bz
0.0%0%
ca
ca
0.0%0%
cb
cb
0.0%0%
cc
cc
0.0%0%
cd
cd
0.0%0%
ce
ce
0.0%0%
cf
cf
0.0%0%
cg
cg
0.0%0%
ch
ch
0.0%0%
ci
ci
0.0%0%
cj
cj
0.0%0%
ck
ck
0.0%0%
cl
cl
0.0%0%
cm
cm
0.0%0%
cn
cn
0.0%0%
co
co
0.0%0%
cp
cp
0.0%0%
cq
cq
0.0%0%
cr
cr
0.0%0%
cs
cs
0.0%0%
ct
ct
0.0%0%
cu
cu
0.0%0%
cv
cv
0.0%0%
cw
cw
0.0%0%
cx
cx
0.0%0%
cy
cy
0.0%0%
cz
cz
0.0%0%
Manifold Markets

Also available on Manifold Markets

26pt disagreement
PolymarketPolymarket
Verified resolution data
Last updated: 8 minutes ago
Mojtaba Khamenei
0pt70%
Other
0pt0%
Reza Pahlavi
0pt7%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
0pt4%
Vol

$11.7M

24h Vol

$751K

Liq

$1.8M

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
Manifold MarketsManifold Markets
Unverified resolution data
Last updated: 7 minutes ago
Mojtaba Khamenei
▼ 8pt62%
Other
▲ +22pt22%
Reza Pahlavi
▼ 4pt3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
▼ 1pt3%
Method

Play-money forecasting platform

Forecasters

211

Question type

multiple choice

No KYCSettles in Mana (M$)
View on Manifold MarketsOpen on Manifold Markets
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Rules

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

  • For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
  • Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
  • If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
  • Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
  • Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
PolymarketOpen on Polymarket

Mock trade

Paper

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