Leader of Iran at end of 2026?
7moManifold MarketsNo KYCAlerts
Follow this market to create alerts.
Forecast context
Current community forecast
Mojtaba Khamenei 61.7%
Forecasters
211
Question type
multiple choice
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 6:12 PM
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-
Started Mar 15, 2026, 2:52 AMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Polymarket
Manifold MarketsLast updated: 7 minutes ago
Mojtaba Khamenei
0pt62%
Other
0pt22%
Reza Pahlavi
0pt3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
0pt3%
Method
Play-money forecasting platform
Forecasters
211
Question type
multiple choice
No KYCSettles in Mana (M$)
PolymarketLast updated: 8 minutes ago
Mojtaba Khamenei
▲ +8pt70%
Other
▼ 22pt0%
Reza Pahlavi
▲ +4pt7%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
▲ +1pt4%
Vol
$11.7M
24h Vol
$751K
Liq
$1.8M
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Mock trade
PaperMock trading is available for binary (Yes/No) markets only.
Topics
GeopoliticsAI
Related Markets
Which company has best AI model end of June?
$246.1KAnthropic: 81%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$219.2KDecember 31: 46%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$134.3KYes: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$128.1KYes: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$101.2KYes: 7%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US military action against Cuba by...?
$69.4KDecember 31: 51%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET