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Bees-x Limited
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13308136
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England and Wales
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Monmouth House, High Street, Watford, England, WD17 1LN

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US military action against Cuba by...?

US military action against Cuba by...?

2.0% (24h)7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 79 • High qualityHigh ambiguity

Alerts

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Decision support

Current implied probability

December 31 51%

Market quality

79 / 100

High quality
Bid / Ask

50.0% / 51.0%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 5:51 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$67.7K

Liquidity

$71.5K

Spread

2.0%

Tight spread
7d Change

+7.0%

Medium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Jan 4, 2026, 8:11 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
December 31
December 31
-2.0%51%
March 31
March 31
-1.8%0%
January 31
January 31
-0%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.

  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
  • A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
  • Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
  • Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
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Topics

Geopolitics

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