Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
0.1% (24h)30d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 56 • Medium qualityNear resolution
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Yes 1%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium qualityBid / Ask
0.9% / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 9:51 AM
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$26.4K
Liquidity
$108.8K
Spread
11.1%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
High liquidityNear resolution
Started Dec 17, 2025, 8:33 PMEnds Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Topics
Geopolitics
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