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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

1.9% (24h)7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 80 • High qualityHigh ambiguity

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

December 31 46%

Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
Bid / Ask

1.9% / 2.0%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 5:21 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$224.7K

Liquidity

$306.5K

Spread

5.3%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-1.4%

High liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Mar 27, 2026, 12:25 AMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
December 31
December 31
-3.0%46%
July 31
July 31
-4.5%35%
June 30
June 30
-3.5%17%
May 31
May 31
-1.9%2%
April 30
April 30
-0.1%0%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
  • An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
  • To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
  • Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
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Topics

Geopolitics

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