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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

1.0% (24h)7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 72 • Medium quality

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Yes 16%

Market quality

72 / 100

Medium quality
Bid / Ask

15.0% / 16.0%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Last updated: May 30, 8:11 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$18.6K

Liquidity

$241.6K

Spread

6.7%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+2.0%

High liquidity
Started Nov 3, 2025, 11:54 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Yes
Yes
+0.0%16%
No
No
-0.0%85%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
  • This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
  • Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
  • Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
PolymarketOpen on Polymarket

Mock trade

Paper

Practice with virtual USDT. Paper trading only.

Minimum 10 USDT.

Topics

Geopolitics

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