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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

0.2% (24h)30d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 80 • High qualityNear resolution

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Yes 2%

Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
Bid / Ask

2.2% / 2.3%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 6:11 PM

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$128.1K

Liquidity

$385.8K

Spread

4.5%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-1.8%

High liquidityNear resolution
Started Dec 17, 2025, 11:04 PMEnds Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Yes
Yes
0.0%2%
No
No
0.0%98%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
  • This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
  • Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
  • Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
PolymarketOpen on Polymarket

Mock trade

Paper

Practice with virtual USDT. Paper trading only.

Minimum 10 USDT.

Topics

Geopolitics

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