Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
0.2% (24h)7mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 83 • High qualityNear resolution
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Yes 7%
Market quality
83 / 100
High qualityBid / Ask
6.6% / 6.7%
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 10:01 PM
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$5.1K
Liquidity
$153.2K
Spread
1.5%
Tight spread7d Change
-0.5%
High liquidityNear resolution
Started Mar 1, 2026, 3:43 AMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Kalshi
PolymarketLast updated: 9 minutes ago
No
0pt93%
Yes
0pt7%
Vol
$11.3M
24h Vol
$5.1K
Liq
$153.2K
Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiLast updated: 9 minutes ago
No
▼ 1pt92%
Yes
▲ +1pt8%
Vol
$14.6K
24h Vol
$4
Liq
$5.1K
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
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