Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
0.5% (24h)7mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeMarket quality 83 • High qualityThin market61pt disagreement
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Before 2027 18%
Market quality
83 / 100
High qualityBid / Ask
17.7% / 17.8%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Last updated: May 30, 11:01 AM
Resolves
Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM
24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$104.8K
Spread
0.6%
Tight spread7d Change
-
High liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity
Started Dec 5, 2025, 6:00 AMEnds Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Polymarket
KalshiLast updated: 1 minute ago
Before Jan 20, 2029
0pt36%
Before 2028
0pt30%
Before 2027
0pt18%
December 31
0pt-
Vol
$237K
24h Vol
$2.9K
Liq
$104.8K
Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
PolymarketLast updated: 1 minute ago
Before Jan 20, 2029
▼ 36pt-
Before 2028
▼ 30pt-
Before 2027
▼ 18pt-
December 31
▲ +14pt14%
Vol
$46.9M
24h Vol
$391.6K
Liq
$1.6M
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mock trade
PaperMock trading is available for binary (Yes/No) markets only.
Topics
Politics
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