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Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

0.5% (24h)4mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 70 • Medium qualityHigh ambiguity10pt disagreement

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 41%

Market quality

70 / 100

Medium quality
Bid / Ask

1.0% / 1.1%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Last updated: May 29, 9:51 PM

Resolves

Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$436K

Liquidity

$8.2M

Spread

10.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-2.2%

High liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Sep 18, 2025, 8:16 PMEnds Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
-1.0%41%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro
-29%
Renan Santos
Renan Santos
+1.4%16%
Fernando Haddad
Fernando Haddad
+0.7%6%
Romeu Zema
Romeu Zema
-3%
Jair Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro
-1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro
-0.5%1%
Ronaldo Caiado
Ronaldo Caiado
-0.1%1%
Camilo Santana
Camilo Santana
-0.1%1%
Tereza Cristina
Tereza Cristina
-0.1%1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
Tarcisio de Freitas
-0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
Eduardo Bolsonaro
-0%
Ratinho Júnior
Ratinho Júnior
-0%
Geraldo Alckmin
Geraldo Alckmin
-0%
Eduardo Leite
Eduardo Leite
-0%
Aldo Rebelo
Aldo Rebelo
-0%
Helder Barbalho
Helder Barbalho
-0%
Person M
Person M
0.0%0%
Person N
Person N
0.0%0%
Person O
Person O
0.0%0%
Person P
Person P
0.0%0%
Person Q
Person Q
0.0%0%
Person R
Person R
0.0%0%
Person S
Person S
0.0%0%
Person T
Person T
0.0%0%
Person U
Person U
0.0%0%
Person W
Person W
0.0%0%
Person Y
Person Y
0.0%0%
Person V
Person V
0.0%0%
Person X
Person X
0.0%0%
Person Z
Person Z
0.0%0%
Other
Other
0.0%0%
Kalshi

Also available on Kalshi

10pt disagreement
PolymarketPolymarket
Verified resolution data
Last updated: 6 minutes ago
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
0pt41%
Flávio Bolsonaro
0pt29%
Renan Santos
0pt16%
Fernando Haddad
0pt6%
Vol

$90.4M

24h Vol

$436K

Liq

$8.2M

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiKalshi
Verified resolution data
Last updated: 5 minutes ago
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
▲ +1pt42%
Flávio Bolsonaro
▲ +4pt33%
Renan Santos
▼ 3pt13%
Fernando Haddad
▼ 1pt5%
Vol

$19.6K

24h Vol

$36

Liq

$10.5K

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
View on KalshiOpen on Kalshi
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

  • This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
  • This market includes any potential second round.
  • If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
  • This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
  • If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
PolymarketOpen on Polymarket

Topics

Politics

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