When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
1.0% (24h)1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeMarket quality 28 • Low qualityThin market
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Before Jul 1, 2026 4%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low qualityBid / Ask
3.0% / 4.0%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 4:32 AM
Resolves
Jul 8, 2026, 2:00 PM
24h Volume
$74.3
Liquidity
$1.1K
Spread
33.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-
Low liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity
Started Mar 26, 2026, 12:00 AMEnds Jul 8, 2026, 2:00 PM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company.
- CEO statements through official channels qualify.
- Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify.
- The announcement must occur after market issuance.
- Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Topics
RegulationTech
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