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California Governor Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

California Governor Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

7.0% (24h)2d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 31 • Low qualityThin market

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Becerra 10%+ 28%

Market quality

31 / 100

Low quality
Bid / Ask

20.0% / 26.0%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Last updated: May 30, 8:11 PM

Resolves

Jun 2, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$2.4K

Liquidity

$17.9K

Spread

30.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-

Low liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity
Started May 28, 2026, 9:49 PMEnds Jun 2, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Becerra 10%+
Becerra 10%+
+11.0%28%
Hilton Wins
Hilton Wins
+3.0%24%
Becerra 5–10%
Becerra 5–10%
-7.0%23%
Steyer <5%
Steyer <5%
-4.5%9%
Becerra <5%
Becerra <5%
-10.0%8%
Bianco Wins
Bianco Wins
+0.3%2%
Steyer 5%+
Steyer 5%+
-2.2%1%
Other
Other
0.0%0%

Rules

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

  • The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
  • This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
  • The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
  • Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
  • If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
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Topics

Politics

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