Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
0.3% (24h)30d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 28 • Low qualityNear resolution
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Yes 2%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low qualityBid / Ask
2.1% / 2.4%
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 7:11 PM
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$7.2K
Liquidity
$22.4K
Spread
14.3%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.5%
Low liquidityNear resolution
Started Nov 12, 2025, 9:42 PMEnds Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
- The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
- If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
- If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mock trade
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Minimum 10 USDT.
Topics
AI
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