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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

0.1% (24h)7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 44 • Low qualityThin market81pt disagreement

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

None in 2026 54%

Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
Bid / Ask

0.1% / 0.5%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 6:41 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$4.9K

Liquidity

$40.7K

Spread

400.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

+0.1%

Medium liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity
Started Feb 13, 2026, 9:49 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
None in 2026
None in 2026
-1.5%54%
Anthropic
Anthropic
-6.0%35%
Google
Google
+3.5%8%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+0.7%3%
xAI
xAI
-0.1%2%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek
-0%
Other
Other
0.0%0%
Alibaba
Alibaba
-0%
Mistral
Mistral
+0.1%0%
Company F
Company F
0.0%0%
Company I
Company I
0.0%0%
Company K
Company K
0.0%0%
Company P
Company P
0.0%0%
Company T
Company T
0.0%0%
Company V
Company V
0.0%0%
Company X
Company X
0.0%0%
Company E
Company E
0.0%0%
Company M
Company M
0.0%0%
Company O
Company O
0.0%0%
Company Q
Company Q
0.0%0%
Company N
Company N
0.0%0%
Company R
Company R
0.0%0%
Company Y
Company Y
0.0%0%
Z.ai
Z.ai
-0.1%0%
Company D
Company D
0.0%0%
Company G
Company G
0.0%0%
Company H
Company H
0.0%0%
Company J
Company J
0.0%0%
Company L
Company L
0.0%0%
Company S
Company S
0.0%0%
Company U
Company U
0.0%0%
Company W
Company W
0.0%0%
Kalshi

Also available on Kalshi

81pt disagreement
PolymarketPolymarket
Last updated: 5 minutes ago
Other
0pt0%
None in 2026
0pt54%
Anthropic
0pt35%
Claude
0pt-
Vol

$73.3K

24h Vol

$4.9K

Liq

$40.7K

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiKalshi
Last updated: 5 minutes ago
Other
▲ +1pt1%
None in 2026
▼ 54pt-
Anthropic
▼ 35pt-
Claude
▲ +33pt33%
Vol

$725.2

24h Vol

$5.7

Liq

$429.7

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
View on KalshiOpen on Kalshi
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
  • If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
  • If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
  • The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
  • If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
PolymarketOpen on Polymarket

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Topics

AI

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