Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
1.0% (24h)7mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeMarket quality 28 • Low qualityThin market84pt disagreement
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
ChatGPT 10%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low qualityBid / Ask
10.0% / 11.0%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 8:11 PM
Resolves
Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM
24h Volume
$6
Liquidity
$430.1
Spread
10.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-
Low liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity
Started Feb 10, 2026, 1:00 AMEnds Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Polymarket
KalshiLast updated: 2 minutes ago
Other
0pt1%
None in 2026
0pt-
Claude
0pt39%
Anthropic
0pt-
Vol
$725.5
24h Vol
$6
Liq
$430.1
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
PolymarketLast updated: 2 minutes ago
Other
▼ 1pt0%
None in 2026
▲ +55pt55%
Claude
▼ 39pt-
Anthropic
▲ +35pt35%
Vol
$73.3K
24h Vol
$4.9K
Liq
$41.1K
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a model by OpenAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a model by xAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a model by Moonshot AI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mock trade
PaperMock trading is available for binary (Yes/No) markets only.
Topics
AI
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