Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
1.0% (24h)5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 72 • Medium qualityHigh ambiguity102pt disagreement
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Democrats Sweep 46%
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium qualityBid / Ask
33.0% / 34.0%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 4:21 PM
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$30.5K
Liquidity
$807.9K
Spread
3.0%
Moderate spread7d Change
+1.0%
High liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Jul 11, 2025, 9:15 PMEnds Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Kalshi
PolymarketLast updated: 8 minutes ago
Democrats Sweep
0pt46%
D-House, D-Senate
0pt-
R Senate, D
0pt34%
D-House, R-Senate
0pt-
Vol
$7.3M
24h Vol
$30.5K
Liq
$807.9K
Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiLast updated: 7 minutes ago
Democrats Sweep
▼ 46pt-
D-House, D-Senate
▲ +42pt42%
R Senate, D
▼ 34pt-
D-House, R-Senate
▲ +33pt33%
Vol
$59.8K
24h Vol
$346.4
Liq
$42.9K
Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
- A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
- A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Mock trade
PaperMock trading is available for binary (Yes/No) markets only.
Topics
Politics
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