Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 83 • High qualityHigh ambiguity
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Republican Party 54%
Market quality
83 / 100
High qualityBid / Ask
53.0% / 54.0%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Last updated: May 30, 9:51 AM
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$5.4K
Liquidity
$425.2K
Spread
1.9%
Tight spread7d Change
+1.0%
High liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Jul 11, 2025, 7:53 PMEnds Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Kalshi
PolymarketLast updated: 2 minutes ago
Republican Party
0pt54%
Democratic Party
0pt47%
Party A
0pt0%
Party B
0pt0%
Vol
$2.5M
24h Vol
$5.4K
Liq
$425.2K
Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiLast updated: 1 minute ago
Republican Party
▲ +1pt55%
Democratic Party
▼ 2pt45%
Party A
0pt-
Party B
0pt-
Vol
$49.9K
24h Vol
$117.7
Liq
$26.5K
Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S.
- Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
- If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position.
- If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
- Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Topics
Politics
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