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How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

2y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Market quality 28 • Low qualityThin market

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

$10 billion to $99 billion 2%

Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
Bid / Ask

2.1% / 3.9%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 8:11 AM

Resolves

Feb 21, 2029, 3:00 PM

24h Volume

$51.5

Liquidity

$5.9K

Spread

85.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

-

Low liquidityThin market
Started Jan 17, 2026, 3:00 PMEnds Feb 21, 2029, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
$10 billion to $99 billion
$10 billion to $99 billion
0.0%2%
$100 billion to $299 billion
$100 billion to $299 billion
-0.5%4%
$0 / No Acquisition
$0 / No Acquisition
-2.0%80%
$1.2 trillion or more
$1.2 trillion or more
-0.1%2%
$1 billion to $9 billion
$1 billion to $9 billion
+0.8%2%
$300 billion to $599 billion
$300 billion to $599 billion
-0.9%3%
$600 billion to $899 billion
$600 billion to $899 billion
0.0%4%
$900 billion to $1199 billion
$900 billion to $1199 billion
0.0%2%

Rules

If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S.

  • Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments.
  • It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning.
  • Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD.
  • An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access.
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Topics

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