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13308136
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

7mo
LimitlessLimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYC
Market quality 32 • Low qualityThin market

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Yes 7.9%

Market quality

32 / 100

Low quality
Bid / Ask

-

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Last updated: May 30, 2:42 AM

Resolves

Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM

24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$0

Spread

-

Spread unknown
7d Change

-

Low liquidityThin marketNear resolution
Started Jan 20, 2026, 6:09 PMEnds Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Yes
Yes
-7.9%
No
No
-92.2%
Polymarket

Also available on Polymarket

LimitlessLimitless
Last updated: 1 minute ago
No
0pt92%
Yes
0pt8%
Vol

$7.6K

24h Vol

$0

Liq

$0

Spread: Spread unknownLiquidity: Low liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYCSettles in USDC
PolymarketPolymarket
Last updated: 1 minute ago
No
▲ +1pt93%
Yes
▼ 1pt7%
Vol

$31.3M

24h Vol

$72.9K

Liq

$925.2K

Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
View on PolymarketOpen on Polymarket
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

    The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

LimitlessOpen on Limitless

Topics

Geopolitics

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