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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

6.0% (24h)
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 74 • Medium qualityHigh ambiguity

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

June 30 69%

Market quality

74 / 100

Medium quality
Bid / Ask

- / 0.1%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 10:21 AM

Resolves

-

24h Volume

$3.5M

Liquidity

$291.4K

Spread

-

Spread unknown
7d Change

-

High liquidityHigh ambiguity

Trends

Outcome24hChance
June 30
June 30
-11.5%69%
June 7
June 7
-14.0%46%
June 3
June 3
-11.0%32%
May 31
May 31
-12.0%14%
May 30
May 30
-11.0%7%
May 28
May 28
-4.3%0%
May 27
May 27
-10.4%0%
May 29
May 29
-6.0%0%
May 26
May 26
-6.3%0%
May 23
May 23
-0%
May 25
May 25
-9.4%0%
May 24
May 24
-42.5%0%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
  • A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:
  • Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.
  • Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.
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Topics

PoliticsGeopolitics

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