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Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

7.0% (24h)1mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 86 • High quality

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

June 30 76%

Market quality

86 / 100

High quality
Bid / Ask

26.0% / 27.0%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Last updated: May 29, 9:51 PM

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$3.2M

Liquidity

$261.5K

Spread

3.9%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+3.0%

High liquidity
Started Apr 12, 2026, 8:47 PMEnds Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
June 30
June 30
+10.5%76%
June 15
June 15
+23.5%65%
June 7
June 7
+13.5%48%
May 31
May 31
+7.0%27%
April 17
April 17
-4.0%0%
April 12
April 12
-0%
April 15
April 15
-2.9%0%
April 19
April 19
-7.5%0%
April 13
April 13
-3.5%0%
April 30
April 30
-0.9%0%
April 23
April 23
-3.5%0%
April 18
April 18
-3.5%0%
May 8
May 8
-2.5%0%
May 22
May 22
-2.5%0%
May 15
May 15
-0.6%0%
May 28
May 28
-7.0%0%

Rules

On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

  • You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
  • Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
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Topics

PoliticsGeopolitics

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