Evo Morales arrested by...?
4.5% (24h)
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 28 • Low qualityThin market
This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
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Decision support
Current implied probability
June 30 31%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low qualityBid / Ask
1.1% / 3.9%
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleLast updated: May 30, 6:51 AM
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$758.7
Liquidity
$2.9K
Spread
254.6%
Wide spread7d Change
-4.0%
Low liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity
Started Mar 31, 2026, 9:43 PMEnds Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mock trade
PaperThis market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Topics
PoliticsGeopolitics
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