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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

11.1% (24h)7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Market quality 86 • High qualityHigh ambiguity

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

December 31 71%

Market quality

86 / 100

High quality
Bid / Ask

2.4% / 2.5%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 6:11 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$6.5M

Liquidity

$2.1M

Spread

4.2%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-34.0%

High liquidityHigh ambiguity
Started Apr 8, 2026, 4:23 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
December 31
December 31
-6.0%71%
July 31
July 31
-12.0%43%
June 30
June 30
-11.0%28%
June 15
June 15
-8.5%19%
June 7
June 7
-10.0%12%
May 31
May 31
-11.1%2%
April 22
April 22
-0.4%0%
April 30
April 30
-0.3%0%
April 24
April 24
-0.7%0%
May 15
May 15
-0.2%0%
May 8
May 8
-2.0%0%
May 11
May 11
-0.2%0%
May 13
May 13
-0%
May 22
May 22
-2.8%0%
May 26
May 26
-6.5%0%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
  • Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
  • A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
  • - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
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Topics

Geopolitics

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