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CoinRithm

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Bees-x Limited
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13308136
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England and Wales
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Monmouth House, High Street, Watford, England, WD17 1LN

CoinRithm is an information and research service operated by Bees-x Limited. It is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to carry on regulated activities, and nothing on this site is financial advice.

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Manifold Markets

2026 political predictions (add your own)

7mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Forecast context

Current community forecast

The leader of a country will die 68.5%

Forecasters

12

Question type

multiple choice

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Last updated: May 30, 8:12 PM

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

-

Started May 29, 2026, 11:49 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
The leader of a country will die
-68.5%
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A figure in the Epstein files is prosecuted for wrong doings
-37.8%
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A president will be assassinated
-17.2%
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There is a trial at the ICC
-62.1%
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NATO invokes Article 5
-25%
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A natural disaster occurs in the US or the UK.
-46.5%
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Trump solves the war in Ukraine
-20%
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A nuclear weapon is used as provocation
-21.1%
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Joe Biden dies
-24%
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Zelenskyy and putin will meet
-31%
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A US judge will sentence Maduro
-60%
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Russian drone/missile will “accidentally” fly into a neighbouring country at least 3 times
-39.7%

Rules

Resolution criteria

  • Each option resolves independently to YES or NO based on events starting from today (30th May) through to the end of the year.
  • The leader of a country will die: Resolves YES if a head of state or head of government (e.g., President, Prime Minister, Ruling Monarch, Supreme Leader) of a sovereign nation dies while in office during 2026.
  • A figure in the Epstein files is prosecuted for wrongdoing: Resolves YES if any individual named in the official documents released is formally arrested, indicted, or criminally charged in connection with the files.
  • A president will be assassinated: Resolves YES if a serving president of any sovereign nation is killed in a violent, politically motivated attack.
  • There is a trial at the ICC: Resolves YES if a criminal trial formally begins proceedings in the International Criminal Court during 2026.
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Topics

PoliticsGeopolitics

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