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Manifold Markets

How will Trump leave office?

Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYC

This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Forecast context

Current community forecast

At the end of his term in 2029. 76%

Forecasters

640

Question type

multiple choice

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Last updated: May 30, 10:32 AM

Resolves

Jan 21, 2029, 4:59 AM

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

-

Started Mar 13, 2025, 8:47 PMEnds Jan 21, 2029, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
At the end of his term in 2029.
-76%
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He will be impeached, tried in the Senate, and removed before the end of his term.
-6%
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He will resign (impeached or not) before the end of his term.
-2.1%
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He will be removed by a 25th Amendment action before the end of his term.
-2.1%
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He will die before the end of his term.
-11%
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The 22nd Amendment will be repealed and he will win re-election to a third term.
-0.2%
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The 22nd Amendment will not be repealed, but he will remain in power through unconstitutional means after January 21, 2029
-2%
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He will be overthrown in a violent coup (military or otherwise) and forced out of office. (If this happens, related answers that may occur like death and resignation will resolve NO).
-0.2%
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Other
-0.4%

Rules

Donald Trump has been elected to a second term as President of the United States, which began on January 20, 2025.

  • The Constitution limits presidents to two terms under the 22nd Amendment.
  • There are several ways a president can leave office, including completing their term, resignation, impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or death in office.
  • Resolution Criteria
  • This market will resolve to the option that best describes how Donald Trump leaves the presidency.
  • Only one option can resolve as YES:
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Topics

PoliticsGeopoliticsAI

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