What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Manifold MarketsNo KYC

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Forecast context

Current community forecast

Trump bans abortion nationwide 5.5%

Forecasters

1,629

Question type

multiple choice

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Last updated: May 30, 4:22 AM

Resolves

Jan 21, 2029, 4:59 AM

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

Started Nov 6, 2024, 5:48 PMEnds Jan 21, 2029, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Trump bans abortion nationwide

-5.5%

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

-11%

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

-1.6%

Trump extends his term past 4 years

-13.5%

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

-12.8%

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

-2%

Trump dies

-15.4%

Fair elections in 2028

-88%

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

-100%

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

-100%

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

-57%

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

-26%

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

-39.8%

A major war in Asia occurs

-100%

Another pandemic

-31.9%

Second Muslim ban

-100%

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

-81%

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

-100%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

-81.6%

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

-28.4%

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

-33.8%

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

-100%

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

-100%

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

-32.5%

Laura Loomer gets any government role

-15.4%

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

-19%

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

-15.4%

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

-67.5%

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

-100%

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

-13.2%

The department of education gets desolved

-17%

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

-100%

Trump gets shot

-18.2%

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

-15%

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

-11.2%

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

-12.3%

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

-44.9%

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

-70%

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

-61.7%

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

-100%

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

-100%

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

-99%

"The New Norm" ends

-89%

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

-28.3%

Trump runs for a third term

-12%

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

-100%

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

-8.5%

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

-83.3%

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

-100%

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

-87.9%

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

-5.9%

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

-72%

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

-35.5%

A national ban on gender-affirming care

-6%

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

-50%

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

-8.8%

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

-56%

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

-100%

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

-86.9%

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

-3.4%

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

-53%

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

-77.3%

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

-8%

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

-69.6%

south park is canceled/discontinued

-13.2%

New

-50%

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

-20%

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

-84.7%

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

-10.8%

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

-36.6%

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

-100%

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

-65.1%

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

-6.1%

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

-3.6%

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

-38.1%

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

-78%

Approval < 35%

-82.6%

Approval < 25%

-17.6%

Jimmy Carter dies

-0%

Joe Biden dies

-31.9%

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

-30.4%

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

-58%

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

-4.9%

Vances have another kid

-67.6%

Starship lands on Mars

-13%

Trump announces he is tired of winning

-19.7%

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

-1%

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

-62%

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

-100%

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

-1.6%

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

-23.6%

55 or more Republican senate seats

-10%

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

-36.6%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

-20.5%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

-91%

Record level unemployment

-15.6%

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

-10.6%

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

-41%

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

-84.6%

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

-33.4%

54 or more Republican senate seats

-10%

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

-75.6%

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

-100%

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

-100%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

-82.6%

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

-100%

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

-100%

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

-73%

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

-18.1%

USA experiences a recession.

-68.1%

Government shutdown

-100%

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

-72%

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

-50.2%

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

-20.9%

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

-5.4%

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

-4.3%

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

-54.7%

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

-47.4%

Repeal obamacare

-10.9%

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

-40%

American Manned Lunar Landing

-19.3%

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

-17.5%

Trump gets covid (again)

-19.3%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

-18.9%

"covfefe" posted again

-8%

trump gets hospitalized

-67%

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

-45%

Congress overrides a presidential veto

-37.7%

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

-64.5%

A new supreme court justice appointed

-78%

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

-20%

Trump is assassinated

-10%

Trump says a racial slur

-39%

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

-35%

Trump visits Africa

-36.5%

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

-5.6%

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

-100%

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

-69.4%

Trump loses the fake tan

-14.5%

Trump declassifies JFK files

-100%

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

-89.8%

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

-7.6%

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

-20%

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

-7%

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

-70.4%

McDonald's reopens in Russia

-41%

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

-44.9%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

-5.8%

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

-42%

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

-4.7%

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

-15.2%

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

-74.6%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

-25.3%

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

-24%

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

-51.6%

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

-25.9%

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

-53.8%

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

-66%

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

-50%

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

-29.2%

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

-93.9%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

-0%

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

-87.9%

Constitutional Amendment

-4.6%

Constitutional Amendment

-24.6%

Cannabis is federally legalized

-9.6%

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

-79.5%

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

-0%

10% fewer government agencies

-31.1%

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

-30%

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

-27.1%

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

-100%

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

-67%

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

-27%

Trump and Obama shake hands

-39%

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

-89.9%

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

-51.5%

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

-7.8%

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

-34.5%

Anthony Fauci is indicted

-31.1%

Anthony Fauci is convicted

-2.3%

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

-5.8%

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

-15.3%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

-1%

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

-11.8%

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

-11%

JD Vance elected President

-19.9%

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

-4.2%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

-86.1%

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

-14.8%

US national bitcoin reserve created

-91.2%

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

-8%

The US leaves the World Health Organization

-100%

New national park created

-30.5%

A hurricane will be nuked

-1%

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

-37%

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

-55.5%

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

-10.5%

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

-63.7%

US Invasion of any North/South American country

-67%

New US national anthem

-2.1%

Ann Selzer arrested

-2.4%

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

-2.5%

BTC falls below $38,000

-29.5%

Dow rises above 65,000

-51%

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

-35.4%

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

-4.2%

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

-41.2%

Trump is seen shirtless

-12%

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

-7.9%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

-20.5%

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

-4.4%

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

-93.6%

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

-4.9%

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

-15.5%

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

-7.2%

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

-7.2%

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

-36.5%

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

-70.6%

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

-5.7%

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

-20.3%

Trump and Melania divorce

-10%

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

-39.6%

John Bolton indicted

-100%

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

-38.4%

New James Bond actor is presented

-90.1%

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

-23%

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

-100%

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

-100%

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

-14.7%

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

-10%

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

-69%

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

-16.4%

Tesla

-34.2%

SpaceX is nationalized

-8%

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

-13.2%

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

-33%

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

-27.5%

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

-23%

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

-41.9%

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

-23.1%

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

-13%

War is declared against another nation

-34.2%

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

-71%

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

-54.5%

NATO invokes Article 5

-19.5%

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

-27%

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

-100%

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

-10.2%

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

-5.8%

Rules

Add your own answers!

Unless otherwise specified:
"Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump.
I expect the intent to be pretty clear.
(If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)
"Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.

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