US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
0.3% (24h)
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 59 • Medium quality281pt disagreement
This market resolved: No (100%)
Alerts
Follow this market to create alerts.
Decision support
Current implied probability
Yes 0%
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium qualityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Market data
Updated 29 days ago
StaleLast updated: May 1, 6:46 AM
Resolves
Apr 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$48.3K
Liquidity
$279K
Spread
-
Spread unknown7d Change
-6.3%
High liquidity
Started Mar 9, 2026, 9:07 PMEnds Apr 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Kalshi
PolymarketLast updated: 29 days agoStale
No
0pt100%
Before Jan 20, 2029
0pt-
Before 2028
0pt-
Before 2027
0pt-
Vol
$2.5M
24h Vol
$48.3K
Liq
$279K
Spread: Spread unknownLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiLast updated: 9 minutes ago
No
▼ 100pt-
Before Jan 20, 2029
▲ +76pt76%
Before 2028
▲ +69pt69%
Before 2027
▲ +64pt64%
Vol
$101.5K
24h Vol
$1.6K
Liq
$39.9K
Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mock trade
PaperThis market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Topics
Geopolitics
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