US-Iran nuclear deal?

5.7% (24h)2d

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Market quality 63 • Medium qualityThin market294pt disagreement

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Before June 4%

Market quality

63 / 100

Medium quality

Bid / Ask

3.6% / 3.8%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Last updated: May 29, 9:51 PM

Resolves

Jun 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

24h Volume

$3K

Liquidity

$39.5K

Spread

5.6%

Moderate spread

7d Change

Medium liquidityThin market

Started Mar 12, 2026, 5:00 PMEnds Jun 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Before June

-5.7%4%

Before July

-7.0%23%

Before August

0.0%37%

Before September

-1.0%46%

Before 2027

-8.0%58%

Before October

-3.0%51%

Before November

-2.0%55%

Before Jan 20, 2029

-2.0%76%

Before December

+4.0%60%

Before 2028

0.0%76%

Before April

0.0%1%

Before May

0.0%0%

Also available on Polymarket

294pt disagreement

Kalshi

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

0pt-

Before Jan 20, 2029

0pt76%

Before 2028

0pt76%

Before December

0pt60%

Vol

$100.7K

24h Vol

$3K

Liq

$39.5K

Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity

Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

▲ +93pt93%

Before Jan 20, 2029

▼ 76pt-

Before 2028

▼ 76pt-

Before December

▼ 60pt-

Vol

$5.6M

24h Vol

$854.9K

Liq

$120.7K

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: High liquidity

Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

View on Polymarket Open on Polymarket

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Also available on Polymarket

294pt disagreement

Kalshi

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

0pt-

Before Jan 20, 2029

0pt76%

Before 2028

0pt76%

Before December

0pt60%

Vol

$100.7K

24h Vol

$3K

Liq

$39.5K

Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity

Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 28 days agoStale

▲ +100pt100%

Before Jan 20, 2029

▼ 76pt-

Before 2028

▼ 76pt-

Before December

▼ 60pt-

Vol

$2.5M

24h Vol

$48.3K

Liq

$279K

Spread: Spread unknownLiquidity: High liquidity

Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

View on Polymarket Open on Polymarket

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Also available on Polymarket

294pt disagreement

Kalshi

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

0pt-

Before Jan 20, 2029

0pt76%

Before 2028

0pt76%

Before December

0pt60%

Vol

$100.7K

24h Vol

$3K

Liq

$39.5K

Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity

Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 59 days agoStale

▲ +100pt100%

Before Jan 20, 2029

▼ 76pt-

Before 2028

▼ 76pt-

Before December

▼ 60pt-

Vol

24h Vol

Liq

Spread: Spread unknownLiquidity: Low liquidity

Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

View on Polymarket Open on Polymarket

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments.
It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution.
Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has "agreed to, signed, or accepted" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Open on Kalshi

Topics

Geopolitics

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Back to Prediction Markets

US-Iran nuclear deal?

5.7% (24h)2d

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Market quality 63 • Medium qualityThin market294pt disagreement

Alerts

Follow this market to create alerts.

Decision support

Current implied probability

Before June 4%

Market quality

63 / 100

Medium quality

Bid / Ask

3.6% / 3.8%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Last updated: May 29, 9:51 PM

Resolves

Jun 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

24h Volume

$3K

Liquidity

$39.5K

Spread

5.6%

Moderate spread

7d Change

Medium liquidityThin market

Started Mar 12, 2026, 5:00 PMEnds Jun 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Before June

-5.7%4%

Before July

-7.0%23%

Before August

0.0%37%

Before September

-1.0%46%

Before 2027

-8.0%58%

Before October

-3.0%51%

Before November

-2.0%55%

Before Jan 20, 2029

-2.0%76%

Before December

+4.0%60%

Before 2028

0.0%76%

Before April

0.0%1%

Before May

0.0%0%

Also available on Polymarket

294pt disagreement

Kalshi

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

0pt-

Before Jan 20, 2029

0pt76%

Before 2028

0pt76%

Before December

0pt60%

Vol

$100.7K

24h Vol

$3K

Liq

$39.5K

Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity

Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

▲ +93pt93%

Before Jan 20, 2029

▼ 76pt-

Before 2028

▼ 76pt-

Before December

▼ 60pt-

Vol

$5.6M

24h Vol

$854.9K

Liq

$120.7K

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: High liquidity

Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

View on Polymarket Open on Polymarket

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Also available on Polymarket

294pt disagreement

Kalshi

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

0pt-

Before Jan 20, 2029

0pt76%

Before 2028

0pt76%

Before December

0pt60%

Vol

$100.7K

24h Vol

$3K

Liq

$39.5K

Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity

Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 28 days agoStale

▲ +100pt100%

Before Jan 20, 2029

▼ 76pt-

Before 2028

▼ 76pt-

Before December

▼ 60pt-

Vol

$2.5M

24h Vol

$48.3K

Liq

$279K

Spread: Spread unknownLiquidity: High liquidity

Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

View on Polymarket Open on Polymarket

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Also available on Polymarket

294pt disagreement

Kalshi

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 6 minutes ago

0pt-

Before Jan 20, 2029

0pt76%

Before 2028

0pt76%

Before December

0pt60%

Vol

$100.7K

24h Vol

$3K

Liq

$39.5K

Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity

Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Verified resolution data

Last updated: 59 days agoStale

▲ +100pt100%

Before Jan 20, 2029

▼ 76pt-

Before 2028

▼ 76pt-

Before December

▼ 60pt-

Vol

24h Vol

Liq

Spread: Spread unknownLiquidity: Low liquidity

Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

View on Polymarket Open on Polymarket

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments.
It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution.
Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has "agreed to, signed, or accepted" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Open on Kalshi

Topics

Geopolitics

Related Markets

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

$436.7K

Yes: 2%

POLYMARKET

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

$397.5K

December 31: 48%

POLYMARKET