US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
7.8% (24h)1d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeMarket quality 73 • Medium qualityNear resolution294pt disagreement
Alerts
Follow this market to create alerts.
Decision support
Current implied probability
Yes 7%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium qualityBid / Ask
6.2% / 7.6%
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Last updated: May 29, 9:51 PM
Resolves
May 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$854.9K
Liquidity
$120.7K
Spread
22.6%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.6%
High liquidityNear resolution
Started Apr 29, 2026, 2:45 AMEnds May 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Kalshi
PolymarketLast updated: 6 minutes ago
No
0pt93%
Before Jan 20, 2029
0pt-
Before 2028
0pt-
Before December
0pt-
Vol
$5.6M
24h Vol
$854.9K
Liq
$120.7K
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: High liquidity
Check availabilityNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
KalshiLast updated: 5 minutes ago
No
▼ 93pt-
Before Jan 20, 2029
▲ +76pt76%
Before 2028
▲ +76pt76%
Before December
▲ +60pt60%
Vol
$100.7K
24h Vol
$3K
Liq
$39.5K
Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity
Check availabilityKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Topics
Geopolitics
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